TED Blog

The season's best buyer's guide

Leave it to Mark Hurst to not only write an extraordinary buyer's guide, but also provide a comprehensive theoretical framework for doing so. Mark (founder of Good Experience) is a long-time advocate of the user experience, broadly defined. And lately he's been troubled by twin themes: complexity and choice. Complexity in consumer products (It's a phone ... and camera ... and garage-door-opener) has made many useful tools impossible to use. And the overwhelming choices (which camera? which computer? which salad dressing) leave us paralyzed and second-guessing ourselves.

Enter Uncle Mark's Gift Guide & Almanac, a charming guide that answers questions like, "What digital camera should I buy?" with a single, definitive answer. No in-depth comparisons, no feature tables and price lists. Just a single recommendation. Thanks, Uncle Mark! Your free guide is a holiday gift in its own right.

National Design Awards

The 2005 U.S. National Design Awards were announced last week, with several of our TED friends among them. Congratulations to Burt Rutan (Product design), Stefan Sagmeister (Communication design), and Eva Zeisel (lifetime achievement). Well done!

On Communicating

A special report from Forbes.com covers the broad topic of Communicating in some interesting ways: from the origins of language in chimps to alien contact to the latest computer interfaces (including the SUI, or Straw-like User Interface, which lets you experience the sensations of drinking). Many TED voices here (Steven Pinker, Jane Goodall, Ray Kurzweil, James Surowiecki), and a few gems -- if you're willing to dig for them -- including an entertaining bit on 10 Things you Communicate Unintentionally.

Metaphor of the month

In November's Natural History Magazine: "And what comedian designer configured the region between our legs — an entertainment complex built around a sewage system?" — Neil deGrasse Tyson, "Universe" column

White light from 98% less energy...

Another intriguing post from our friends at Worldchanging.com...

Confidence in numbers

Here's a brilliant new website, pledgebank.  The idea's simple. Make a pledge, any pledge, conditional on a number of other people joining in.

Pledges can be symmetrical (everyone does the same thing)...

    "I will march on the White House in protest at X, if 1,000 people will join me."

    "I will paint my car bright yellow, if 200 people in my city will pledge the same."

...or a-symmetrical (you offer more than you ask from others.)

    "I will take $100,000 worth of sleeping bags to Pakistani earthquake victims if 5 people will join me to help distribute them..."

    "I will host free pizza at 10pm on my street, if a minimum of 30 people pledge to show up."

You gotta love it when the Net creates the possibility of social interactions that can never have taken place before in history. Sites like this have the potential to create virtual communities that don't just gossip online... they act. We're just scratching the surface of what's possible. 

This site has been built on a shoestring with massive help from volunteers. It was launched in the UK a couple months ago, and is only now starting to roll out in the US. (Their US user registration is currently structured by county, so it recognizes 'Manhattan' not 'New York'. They're looking for someone to contribute a zip-code based database.)

I contacted Tom Steinberg, founder of Pledgebank, yesterday, and he said they currently have about 20,000 people signed up.  In order for it to really take off in the US, he says it needs someone to come up with an eyepopping pledge that creates some buzz...   Ideas, anyone? 

I pledge to give $1000 to the person with the best eyepopping pledge idea offered here by the end of October, provided more than 5 people contribute an idea.

I'm serious. This thing's worth supporting.

Are we inside Bubble 2.0?

Something truly significant is happening right now in the world of web creation. Engineers, entrepreneurs, and investors are buzzing with the possibilities of web 2.0 technologies, and the interactive applications they enable. There's an energy — even a joyfulness — pervading the industry that this former web gal hasn't seen since perhaps 1999. The web is getting fun again.

But the flip side of the fun is the fear that we might be witnessing (or rather, inflating) another bubble. "Bubble 2.0," as TEDster David Hornik calls it in VentureBlog today:

Over the last couple of months I've noticed an increasing sense of unease in the venture community about the trend in Web 2.0 company creation and financing events. While no one is officially willing to peg it Bubble 2.0 for fear of missing the next great opportunity, I've been having lots of conversations with venture investors about this nagging feeling that we've been here before....

So why am I now getting this increasingly uneasy feeling? ... There are a large number of "companies" being created again for the express purpose of being acquired ... These folks are unabashed about their intention to be acquired and they are developing their software and services with an eye towards compatibility with their would-be acquirers.

Acquisitions in and of themselves are certainly not a problem. The vast majority of money-making venture investments reach liquidity through acquisition. But, by in large, the most successful venture investments end in Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) ... If companies are indeed again being built for acquisition rather than independence, venture investors are in for a rude re-awakening (that will be precipitated by a very loud popping sound). While a few companies being built for acquisition will be acquired, the vast majority will ultimately run out of money and be shut down.

For those of us, as David writes, "who've seen this movie before," it's an important conversation to continue. Full post from VentureBlog: Built To Be Bought (Bubble 2.0)

Huge story... largely ignored

Given that everyone's top wish, politicians and bimbos alike, is supposed to be 'world peace', you'd think that when a detailed, intensely-researched, highly credible report is published suggesting spectacular progress in that direction, it would be front-page news in the media.

You'd be wrong.

The Human Security Report 2005 published last week included the following astonishing, not-to-say exhilarating findings.
- The number of armed conflicts has declined by more than 40% since 1992. The deadliest conflicts (those with 1000 or more battle-deaths) dropped by 80%.
- The number of military coups and attempted coups has declined by some 60% since 1963. In 1963, there were 25 coups or attempted coups; in 2004, there were 10. All failed.
- Most armed conflicts now take place in the poorest countries in the world, but as incomes rise the risk of war declines.
- The period since the end of World War II is the longest interval without wars between the major powers in hundreds of years.
- Most of the world's conflicts are now concentrated in Africa. But even here there are signs of hope. Between 2002 and 2003 (the last year for which there is data) the number of armed conflicts in Africa dropped from 41 to 35.
- Wars have become dramatically less deadly over the past five decades. The average number of people reported killed per conflict per year in 1950 was 38,000; in 2002 it was just 600, a decline of 98%.

Of course there's still plenty of horror in the world, but good news should be celebrated, especially as there are pointers in the report as to how the situation can be improved further. One of the drivers of the reduction may have been a four-fold increase in UN peace-keeping missions. The total cost of these missions? The same as one-month of the US war in Iraq. Go figure.

"The wars that dominated the headlines in the 1990s were real - and brutal enough," the study says. "But the global media have largely ignored the 100-odd conflicts that have quietly ended since 1988."

The global media also, of course, largely ignored the report. Chances are this is the first you've heard of it.  I'm getting more and more angry about this...  the strange, unspoken, self-reinforcing alliance between media and public, which results in such a distorted world image being created. Drama, celebrity and parochialism inevitably trump insight, reason, and the global view. 

A design space to watch

TEDster Diego Rodriguez, who works with IDEO, teaches at the Stanford d. School, and writes the influential blog metacool, debuts his BusinessWeek Online column today. We'll be watching that space ...

Cameron Sinclair: A 'silver lining' to this year's disasters

A great piece in BusinessWeek Online suggests that TED Prize winner Cameron Sinclair and his work with Architecture for Humanity could be the silver lining to this year of natural catastrophes...

The Daily Jurvetson

Many TEDsters have their own blogs, and one of the coolest is Steve Jurvetson's. Steve (pictured here test-driving Graham Hawkes' gorgeous Deep Flight Aviator)  is currently in China, and I followed a discussion on his 'BMW style' Chinese SUVs to this not-very-confidence-inspiring crash-test video. Perhaps Detroit still has a few years to run...

Check out Steve's pics and videos of his recent rocketry weekend... and what was, hands down, the most delightfully nerdy coverage of TED2005.

Trend-spotting with Murray Moss

Whether you're surveying a new season of design offerings, or simply considering a new set of spoons, you might find yourself wondering: WWMMD? What would Murray Moss Do? Moss (TED02) curates one of the world's great collections of inspired objets in his eponymous SoHo store. You'll get a sense of where he's heading from this BusinessWeek Online package, where Moss calls out 10 trends he sees shaping new design today. It's just one man's observations, of course. And he missed a few that would make our TED list ... for example, the trend toward organic forms, inspired by nature, which Ross Lovegrove so beautifully demonstrated at TED2005.

MUJI @ MOMA

Got MUJI? If not, you will soon. The opening last week of a MUJI store-within-a-store at the Museum of Modern Art was a great day for great design. Discerning design geeks already adore MUJI, the "brand-free" Japanese brand that creates elegant, streamlined, delightfully practical products, ranging from scissors to CD players to concept cars. Their secret? Along with in-house talent, MUJI recruits celebrity designers for specific products. And while the identities of said celebrities are closely guarded, we suspect the involvement of more than one TEDster ...

Some strange choices on this list...

Here's a quirky line-up of "the world's top 20 public intellectuals" published by a couple of magazines after a widely-promoted internet vote.

1 Noam Chomsky
2 Umberto Eco
3 Richard Dawkins
4 Václav Havel
5 Christopher Hitchens
6 Paul Krugman
7 Jürgen Habermas
8 Amartya Sen
9 Jared Diamond
10 Salman Rushdie
11 Naomi Klein
12 Shirin Ebadi
13 Hernando de Soto
14 Bjørn Lomborg
15 Abdolkarim Soroush
16 Thomas Friedman
17 Pope Benedict XVI
18 Eric Hobsbawm
19 Paul Wolfowitz
20 Camille Paglia

Looks like there are three criteria to make the list. 1) Be really smart. 2) Write a best-selling book.  3) Have your supporters organize an Internet voting campaign.  Here's the inside scoop.

Our congrats to TED speakers Dawkins, Diamond and Lomborg.

Honorary TEDster: August Wilson, 1945 - 2005

When Radio Golf opened this year at the Yale Repertory Theater, we knew it was the right moment to invite August Wilson to TED. Who better to talk about creating the future than the charismatic Wilson, who set out in 1985 to write a series of ground-breaking plays, chronicling the lives of African Americans in each decade of the 20th century? What better moment than after the final installation of his monumentally ambitious 10-play cycle? Sadly, a TED appearance was not to be. Wilson was diagnosed with incurable liver cancer before our invitation went out; he died last week, at the age of 60. Though we won't have the great joy of bringing him to the TED stage, we humbly honor him here. His Tony (for Fences) and two Pulitzers (Fences, The Piano Lesson) didn't begin to reward him for the extraordinary contribution he made to American theater and history, alike.

Colbert's debut

I don't watch much TV, but Jon Stewart gets regular Tivo-time (even if his terrible Bush impressions are getting a little tired), and now his sidekick Stephen Colbert follows with his own half-hour of satire. A pretty good start last night, I thought,  especially his line that the great divide in America is no longer Democrat/Republican, but Head/Heart. The truth doesn't matter, it's how strongly you FEEL it...

Time for time-shifted cellular?

Big discovery for me this year is that the key enabling digital technology in the developing world is probably NOT the computer, but the cell-phone.

- TEDster Tom Standage wrote a brilliant cover story  in The Economist to this effect.
- Iqbal Quadir's talk at TEDGLOBAL offered further powerful evidence via the astonishing story of Grameen Phone
- and two eye-opening trips for me this year -- to Ethiopia and India -- further convinced me. In India everyone was using cell-phones, in Ethiopia, everyone wanted one.

Today, the fantastic website worldchanging (which TED Prize winner Ed Burtynsky is supporting with one of his wishes) pointed me to research from Philips that could allow the introduction of yet cheaper communication devices -- modified MP3 players -- by using 'time-shifted' communication. Turns out you may be able to get much of the benefit of a cell-phone without having to communicate in real time. I LIKE this idea.... and the potential 'leapfrogging' it could enable.

Bird Flu Genome: Recipe for disaster?

Some of the world's greatest minds are consumed these days with the threat of avian flu. In an effort to better understand the evolution of the virus, scientists recently decoded -- and published -- the genome of the 1918 flu virus (which also jumped from birds to humans). A grave mistake, according to two eminent TEDsters. In today's New York Times, inventor Ray Kurzweil (TED05) and Sun Microsystems founder Bill Joy (who will speak at TED2006), argue that publishing this genome is a matter of national -- or, rather, global -- security. It would be easier, they argue, to create and release this virus than it would be to build and detonate an atomic bomb. Chilling ... and well-argued.

Narcissism rules

Greg Shove introduces me to the intriguing website 43things.com, encouraging people to write down 43 goals and then share progress on meeting them with others. Aristotle would be shocked at how inward looking everyone is. Here is the list of the top personal goals of all time as measured by their readers (who are, in any case, a group self-selected to at least be planning something for their lives). A grand total of two goals in the top 50 have anything to do with helping anyone else... and they just squeak in.  44. "Be a better friend" and (aguably) 48.  "Make a difference".  Way ahead of those are the grand pursuit of legacies such as "drink more water", "kiss in the rain" and "wake up when my alarm clock goes off". 

Hmmm....  I wonder what such a list would look like for TEDsters.  Can anyone figure out how to find out?

TED Prize Winner: Cameron Sinclair

Cameron's mantra: Design like you give a damn.  He's the co-founder of Architecture for Humanity, a non-profit that seeks architectural solutions to humanitarian crises and brings design services to communities in need. This past year has been a busy one for Cameron, with the tsunami, Katrina and the earthquake in Pakistan. He's become the go-to person around disaster-recovery issues, fielding thousands of emails a week from people seeking to help. He plans to think big with his TED Prize wish, and is open to ideas. But for the sake of his In-box, let's have that conversation here ...

TED Prize Winner: Larry Brilliant

It's difficult to resist making a pun around the name Larry Brilliant. Board-certified in preventive medicine and public health, Larry lived in India for 10 years — first at a Himalayan monastery, and later as a diplomat working for the UN. He helped lead the successful WHO smallpox-eradication program and later founded the Seva Foundation, an international health nonprofit that's restored sight to more than two million blind people. Larry also co-founded the legendary online community, The Well. His current passion surrounds the threat of Bird Flu, and he's hinted that his TED Prize wish will lie somewhere in the realm of global health. He's open to suggestions ...

TED Prize Winner: Jehane Noujaim

Jehane Noujaim is the gutsy filmmaker behind Control Room, the controversial documentary following events at Al Jazeera — the largest Arab news network — from the onset of the Iraq war. Jehane left for Qatar two weeks before the US invasion and gained access to both Al Jazeera and the US Military's Central Command. She also produced and directed the award-winning film, Startup.com. Jehane is on a mission to uncover cultural truths, and she's looking for ideas for her next documentary. We suspect the TED community will have some thoughts on this TED Prize wish ...

DeYoung again: Redesigned museum opens in SF

Continuing the global trend toward museum-as-architectural-showpiece, the new DeYoung opens tomorrow in San Francisco -- and stays open for 29 straight hours of welcoming fanfare. Designed by Pritzker-winning architects Herzog & DeMeuron, the boxy copper-faced building was designed to promote meaningful interaction with the landscape, as well as the art. Does it succeed? We await your report from the west ...

A Macarthur for Majora

Among the newly minted 2005 Macarthur Fellows: Majora Carter, the charismatic pioneer for urban renewal who will speak at TED2006. Carter, who will receive one of the legendary $500K "genius grants," founded Sustainable South Bronx, an organization that's improved air quality, adopted green-roof technology, launched exercise programs, and built parks in a community that's long gone without green spaces or opportunities for healthy living. The Macarthur is just the latest chapter in Carter's remarkable story. We can't wait to hear her tell it ...

The Luxuriant Flowing Hair Club for Scientists

When Tom Rielly pointed out the prevalence of hirsute speakers at TEDGLOBAL (with a wink toward Steven Pinker and Aubrey DeGrey), we didn’t realize there was an organized movement behind it ...

Ed Burtynsky brings the big picture to Brooklyn

TED Prize winner Ed Burtynsky is known for his extraordinary large-format photographs, documenting the impact of humans on earth. His epic slideshow at TED2005 took us through unorthodox landscapes — mountains of tires, rivers of industrial waste — as eerily beautiful as they are disturbing. You can revisit them (at your own pace) at the Brooklyn Museum through January 15th. Or in his book, Manufactured Landscapes, any time you like.

An M&M-sized traffic jam

At TEDGlobal this summer, Richard Dawkins outlined the limitations of the human mind. We live, he explained, in a middle-sized world, and have difficulty understanding anything very large — like solar systems — or very small, like atoms.

So when Dartmouth researchers created the world's smallest mobile robot, which measures a hundredth of an inch by one four-hundredth of an inch, we had a little trouble visualizing it. Fortunately, the New York Times article supplied a brilliant measurement metaphor: "A traffic jam of 200," they explain, "would stretch the length of an M&M." Now that's something we can relate to.

Welcome, TEDsters

Bowing to extraordinary public pressure, we are pleased to unveil the new TEDBLOG...  a little taste of ongoing TEDness for those who feel that once a year just isn't enough.

The plan is to add a few items every week...  to titillate, intrigue and delight.  Matters scientific, techie, creative, entertaining and... well, anything that we think might be of interest to you, our TED friends.

And, of course, we're counting on you to join in the fun -- in two ways:

• by pointing us to the good stuff each day. If it's out there, someone from TED will know about it soon enough. Please email my colleague June Cohen, who has been the driving force behind the blog. Use this address  blog@ted.com 
• by adding your comments to posts.

If you have your own blog, please also send the link to  blog@ted.com and we'll monitor it for items to include...

All feedback welcome. No doubt we'll be on a learning curve for a while, and the learning will happen best if you help. Over to you!

- Chris

Intriguing launch from Seth Godin

Marketing guru Seth Godin , whose 'Purple Cow' talk was a hit at TED2003, has launched an ingenious new site called Squidoo.

It plans to accumulate content from anyone willing to play where each page (he calls it a lens) is a self-contained piece of expertise on a single topic. Seth believes this will help make searches much more productive and allow an army of individual mini-experts and bloggers to promote their wisdom to the world. About.com meets wikipedia.

The free e-book accompanying the launch is a great, fast read with real insights, I think, on the future of search. Whether or not Squidoo gets to critical mass, the concept is cool.